UN Emissions Gap Report 2025: world still far off Paris targets

The United Nations’ 2025 Emissions Gap Report delivers a stark assessment: the world is on a path toward roughly 2.3–2.5°C of warming relative to pre‑industrial levels — well above the Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C. While the 2025 projections look slightly better than last year’s, the report notes some of that improvement comes from methodological changes; the near‑term picture remains worrying.

The UN also warns that the planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in January 2026 will erase about 0.1°C of the modest progress implied by current pledges. To stand a realistic chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C by 2100, global CO2 emissions would have to fall by roughly 55% by 2035; hitting 2°C by 2030 would require cuts of about 35%.

Key findings at a glance

• Projected warming by 2100: approximately 2.3–2.5°C under current policies and pledges.
• Improvement vs. 2024 report: a partial methodological effect (2024 projected 2.5–2.8°C).
• Impact of US withdrawal: ~0.1°C setback if it proceeds in 2026.
• Required cuts for 1.5°C goal: ~55% reduction in emissions by 2035.

The human and ecological risks of exceeding these temperature thresholds are severe: more intense wildfires, crop failures and food insecurity, freshwater stress, coastal flooding, coral reef collapse, and the increased likelihood of crossing irreversible climate tipping points — such as major ice‑sheet loss. The report stresses that while scaling up renewables has exceeded expectations, reliance on future CO2 removal technologies remains highly uncertain and potentially risky.

Why this matters

National pledges and current geopolitics are not yet aligned with the rapid, deep cuts required. That gap means policymakers face a stark choice: rapidly accelerate mitigation now, or rely on uncertain, costly carbon removal later — a strategy that risks overshooting thresholds with long‑term consequences.

Where to look for solutions

• Immediate emissions reductions across power, transport, industry and land‑use sectors.
• Accelerating deployment of wind and solar (already outperforming expectations).
• Investing in energy efficiency, electrification and sustainable agriculture.
• Carefully scaling CO2 removal only as a supplement, not a substitute, for deep emissions cuts.

For the full UN report and technical details, see the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report (opens in a new tab): UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025. For press coverage and analysis, read the original coverage (opens in a new tab): Engadget.

Discussion: With the report’s numbers in mind, should governments prioritize rapid mitigation now or invest in future carbon‑removal technologies? Which sectors should see the deepest cuts first?